'Western cancers' spreading to developing world

Cancer's bite could soon be felt more strongly in the developing world. The increase in affluence among some of the world's poorer countries will lead to a 75 per cent surge in the cancers typical of western countries.

The prediction comes from a new study that links data on current cancer patterns to projected changes in lifespan and population size in 184 countries.

Globally, cancer cases are likely to increase by three-quarters by 2030, soaring to 22 million new cases per year, from 13 million recorded in 2008. The biggest change will be in countries rated as poorest or medium on the United Nation's Human Development Index. These will experience a surge in the three main killer cancers in rich countries: breast, colon and prostate cancer.

"It's the 'westernisation' factor," says Freddie Bray of the International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon, France, who led the survey team.

Wild card

The wild card is lung cancer, cases of which will vary according to how strictly anti-smoking laws are enforced as countries become more affluent. Lung cancer has soared in China, for example, and the government introduced an initiative to ban smoking in some public venues last year.

Bray says that forewarned of the problems, governments can plan to head them off. "Hopefully, the awareness of cancer is increasing substantially, and this study is part of that," he says.

"These statistics remind us that it's more important than ever to invest in ways to reduce the number of people that develop and die of cancer across the world," says Jessica Harris, health information manager at Cancer Research UK. "If we're to beat cancer, we need continued research to find ways to prevent, diagnose and treat the disease."

Journal reference: The Lancet, DOI: 10.1016/s1470-2045(12)70211-5

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